Horse Racing Results 4 March 2024

So it is that, again excepting the impostor Lord W, every other Gold Cup scorer this century has returned 12/1 or shorter. Joseph O’Brien won this in 2019 with Band Of Outlaws, and saddles Champion Green this time. A relative slow starter he broke his maiden at the fourth Bolts Up Daily time of asking, over nine furlongs at Punchestown. The second won next time and was rated 89 when taking on handicappers for the first time, the third – also trained by Joseph – has won a couple of minor hurdle races, and the fourth won a Leopardstown maiden next time.

Value Bet tips: Saturday, December 23

Joes Edge defied a 114 day absence in 2007 though such extended layoffs are exceptional when it comes to Ultima winners. High Definition is obviously a very high class ex-flat horse; he was favourite for the Dante as a three-year-old and ran second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and third in the Group 1 Coronation Cup last year. The problem is that, as obviously and unsurprisingly fast as he has been, he jumps like, well, like a Dante favourite. I think he’s very likely to be found out in a race as hot as this, especially with other pace players from the get go. Jpr One has the best domestic form but not by much; he also has a trainer in form and can handle conditions.

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• Hence one needs to be aware that results for runners priced 6/1 or shorter are difficult to predict for a one–off Festival, 28 races always being a small sample size.
• It’s a really tough heat with even fewer clues than your average Festival handicap.
• Naturally, if the horse is two from five, it will be more compelling than if it’s two from 25!
• With 59 racecourses in Britain and 26 in Ireland, you’re almost certainly not far away from a local track, and tickets for regular meetings (when spectators are allowed) can often be as low as £10.
• Following these will give you some indication as to what you can expect in the run-up to a big event.
• This is because they are the biggest group, have by far the best record win wise, and they have just about broken even.
• When he saw the horse coming along it was too late, the other two went already.

It is no surprise to see horses that ran in Ireland LTO coming out on top in terms of strike rate, returns and A/E indices. There is, however, one Irish course where caution might be advised, and that is Gowran Park. Just 2 winners from 90 runners in the last 15 years prepped there, with losses amounting to over 88p in the £. The data show a poor record for odds-on runners, but in general short- to mid-range prices do quite well. The cut off price looks to be at 14/1 – at this price and bigger Grade 1 runners have performed poorly.

Windsor Results

Doddiethegreat might be Nicky’s main hope, but I’d not be dismissive of First Street either. Whilst we know him best as a two miler these days, he stayed this sort of trip earlier in his career, and he has won a handicap off a 3lb higher mark back in 2022. Another class animal with the right sort of mark from which to go well. Having written about these two horses, I was curious as to how Willie’s maiden winner to Grade 1 hurdlers have performed.

Saturday 27th July’s Racecards for UK & Ireland

Over the course of his first 15 months (Jan 21 to March 22), he performed so well that we setup a Free Tipster service for SBC members to follow. Thus ‘No Foto Needed’ was born –  a way for him to supply advice via this specially curated SBC run service, without having to put his real name to its operation. No Foto Needed secured 18.84% of the vote, beating some well respected and high profile services in the process.

Racing Results for Monday 22 April 2024

In this case, 2nd of four beats two horses and loses to one horse, so has a PRB score of 67% (or 0.67) for beating two out of three of its rivals. Impact Value (IV) is a measure of how frequently something happens for x in relation to how frequently it happens for all. For instance, how often the going is good to soft on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival compared to how often the going is good to soft over all days of the Cheltenham Festival. Protektorat has been Pricewise’d in the last couple of days, that value vacuum cleaner meaning he’s a rum price for us Johnny Come Lately’s, but he’s not really one I’m yet persuaded by anyway. And so, enfin, let us peruse the past performances, in approximate market rank order.

They’re off in the Champion Chase

KARMOLOGY looks the solid option in this competitive fillies’ handicap. She’s usually very consistent but never showed up at Yarmouth last time. Her earlier form is very useful and she can give weight and a beating to her rivals. The selection has no room for error off top-weight, but no one rides the straight course at Ascot better than Spencer. The micro-systems above will provide plenty of action for those who like a mechanical approach.

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Distinction brings solid form to the table as well and looks the most obvious danger on paper. He was only beaten half a length at Catterick and is just 1lb higher so should run his race. Tamaska has won 2 of his last 3 and looks best of the rest but another 2lb rise is going to ask more of him and he only prevailed by a neck last time at Doncaster from an exposed sort. Nat Love has won over this C&D before but was held by the fav last time. I was very pleased that I tipped three on Tuesday, including Lizzie Kelly on Coo Star Sivola at 5-1.

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In 2008, Fiveforthree bridged that class chasm as a 7/1 chance in the Ballymore – now Gallagher – i.e. this race. And in 2022, The Nice Guy did likewise at 18/1 in the Spuds race. Thirty others tried and failed, though you’d have got paid out on at least six of them for a place. In other words, market wise, they’ve probably fared no worse than any other Willie cohort; which is to say losing a little bit over time and the real longshots don’t win. Best of the British could be Handstands, for Ben Pauling and former Gold Cup sponsor Tim Radford. He is an unbeaten domestic, defending a point and three hurdle scores, the most recent of which was in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, where he beat the previous Grade 1 winner and subsequent Grade 2 second, Jango Baie.

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• Last year, Put The Kettle On was a 16/1 chance when winning by a length and a half.
• Lightly raced, as is often the modus operandi with Willie Mullins’ better mares, Concertista has run just twice this term.
• Gordon Elliott has won six of the last seven (one of them under the pseudonym Denise Foster) Festival cross country races and has an iron grip on a bid for a seventh.
• The favourite, and very short at that, is trained by Willie Mullins and owned by Mrs S Ricci, and he is called Gaelic Warrior.
• MT – Ground important for Teahupoo who wants “proper soft”.
• Mullins-trained Douvan ‘drifting like a barge’ in the betting, according to Matt Chapman.
• The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 13 winners from a total of 195 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 12 runners.

Assuming that all’s well after an absence of just on four months, he sets a high standard here and should be competitive in a higher grade than this Class 4 event in the future. Get Rhythm is worth keeping an eye on, although testing ground is a concern. Spice Fair is exposed, but ran second in this race last year and is expected to go well at big odds. He looks progressive, but hasn’t been missed in the market.

That form reads pretty well for all that it’s probably a dollop below the pick of the Irish team. Still, he has very clear potential and might come out as the top home team runner (if you like sound bites, his trainer has apparently suggested Handstands is better than Willoughby Court, who won this race in 2017). When you’re placing your bets, you’ll come across jargon specific to horse racing and betting. While you’ll mostly find it straightforward to pick your winners and place your bets across our recommended bookies, it’s nevertheless important you understand what the most common terms mean and how they might affect your bets. In-play betting is arguably a little less effective in horse racing compared to say, football or tennis. Horse races are usually fast moving by their nature, blink-and-you-miss-it type events.

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As a consequence, I went fishing for a wager in a different pond, the ‘without the favourite’ market. She’s now as big as 7/1 in that market, and in all honesty I’ve cooled on her prospects of running second to Honeysuckle (and therefore winning that bet) a little, though she still has grand claims of being in the first four. And Matt Tombs in his excellent matchbook content added that five of the 14 runners to start with a chase rating 7lb+ lower than their hurdle mark managed to win in the last 13 renewals.

Golden Days

All of the last 16 winners had raced at least once since the start of Newbury’s Coral Cup Handicap Chase meeting the previous November. Among the British challengers, Teeshan from Paul Nicholls’ yard showed promise with a victory at Exeter last month, while Ben Pauling’s Sixmilebridge impressed on his stable debut at Sandown. Though primarily seen as a hurdling prospect for the future, Sixmilebridge shouldn’t be overlooked in this race. Willie Mullins fields the favourite, Jasmin De Vaux, who showcased promise with a victory at Naas on his stable debut in January.

• Teenager Jack Kennedy made sure there was no hard luck story by keeping out of trouble on the outside and cruised into contention on the final bend, taking up the running from Vision Des Flos.
• He too wears a hood here and, though more likely to run his race than Gaelic Warrior, I feel, his best race is not as good as that one’s, and only a fine margin in front of Found A Fifty, just a neck back last month.
• The Flat jockeys’ championship takes winners of both Flat and all-weather races taking place from the start of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket (May 4, 2024) and runs until British Champions Day at Ascot (October 19, 2024).
• You can look at a horse’s past performances to work out whether the ground conditions will suit – and it’s understanding these crucial variables that can give punters the edge.
• This horse is having its second run after a wind op and its first wearing a tongue tie.

Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day One Preview, Tips

Back in fourth at Naas was Nara, who really has looked a Boodles project on her two starts on Irish shores so far. The reapplication of the hood looks a smart move, as she was a bit keen pre-race and I don’t expect to see her in the paddock at Cheltenham until the bell for jockeys-up goes, at which point it’ll be straight in and straight out again. There should be more to come once she learns to take her racing better, for all you’d struggle to say she’s been thrown in here.

Value, testing ground & the Festival…

Well, why aren’t they running in that race then, I hear (one of) you cry! The answer, of course, is trajectory; and that is the byword for attempting to solve this wagering puzzle. Cast back to 2020, and a six-year-old Epatante was winning the Blue Riband while forty minutes later Honeysuckle, also six, was winning this race.

Honeysuckle – Mares’ Hurdle – 11/8 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)

Despite previous trends favouring shorter-priced horses, this year’s contest appears to be wide open. The absence of a standout bumper horse from Ireland contributes to the race’s unpredictability, reflected in bookmakers offering odds of 6/1 for the entire field at time of writing (Tuesday morning). He’s capable of getting placed, but too expensive to follow. Paul Nicholls’ Stay Away Fay won last year’s Albert Bartlett Hurdle and has had a great start to his chasing career winning his first two and then running the race of his life when a close third in the Cotswold Chase last time out.

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Madara rates a mention as a progressive 5yo with a 3-3 record on testing ground, and he went to Ireland to spank the local handicappers at the DRF. That allowance was 6lb when he won at Cheltenham two starts back and still 3lb at Leopardstown but has now been eroded entirely. It won’t stop him, as such, but he’s effectively 19lb higher than when beating In Excelsis Deo two starts back, and I don’t think it has been factored into his price. There are lots of poorly handicapped horses in this race and it’s not hard to whittle the field down to horses well enough treated who can cope with the conditions and the Cheltenham fences. Most of his best form is on a sounder surface, as when fourth in the Gold Cup two years ago; but he’s raced mainly on softer recently. Indeed, he was second to Delta Work in this race a year ago and was down the field in the two handicap chases over the track/trip late last year.

Ile Atlantique, another Willie entry, was outstayed by yet another from Closutton in Readin Tommy Wrong in the G1 Lawlor’s of Naas over two and a half last time. Tommy heads for the Albert Bartlett, rightly so as his effort in Naas was very much one of a stayer. It is often said of the Gallagher that it’s more of a speed than a stamina test, with runners tending to settle into a steadier rhythm than, say, the Supreme – a two mile burn up from flag fall. That being the case, Ile Atlantique’s two mile tactical speed could be valuable, though he’s only run once over timber prior to his defeat last time.

If you still think taking 7/2 is acceptable when you can get 4/1, you’re doing it wrong. The course has provided an early hunting ground for a number of national hunt legends. Multiple Grand National winners have scored at Bangor, while Gold Cup winning trio Norton’s Coin, Mr Mulligan and Denman all tasted success there before their finest hour. None of the runners with racecourse experience leap off the page, so it may be worth chancing SAINT SEGAL. His dam was a very talented hurdler in France and his half-sister has also won over timber this season, so there is hope that he could be above average.

And welcome to our coverage of day two of the Cheltenham Festival. There are eight races on the card, starting with two Grade Ones,  the Novices’ Hurdle at 1.30pm and the Novices’ Chase 40 minutes later. The pick of the day is, of course, the Queen Mother Champion Chase at 3.30pm.

In fact, overall, 17 of Henderson’s 32 runners in the race finished in the first three – take that, Willie! There’s a leap of faith required with this chap that there isn’t with some of the Irish Grade 1 horses but that’s reflected in their respective odds. One does need to keep a weather eye on the yard’s form, however, as there have been a fair number of P’s on the recent Hendo score card. He hasn’t had a runner, let alone a winner, since 2nd March and has just one entered pre-Cheltenham, at Plumpton on Monday.

True, he was well seen off by Marie’s Rock in the Relkeel, though that was over an extra half mile; and he was no match for State Man in the County a year ago. He has some impressive performances to his name, most of them on genuine good ground, but I can’t quite shake that County clunk from my memory banks. Kilbeg King got low at several of his fences at Ascot but still stayed on dourly at the end to force the winner to pull out all the stops. On that cheerful note, let’s dive into the latest renewal, with just the seven runners meaning there’s no point looking for an each-way angle into the race. All seven of the runners have a chance and the first thing I want to say is that the old advice that Derek O’Connor’s mount already has a 5lb advantage is not to be believed.

• Of the home team, Edwardstone’s case dwarfs his compatriots, though it is possible that War Lord may significantly reduce the margin by which he was beaten in December.
• Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field.
• He’s got 149 here, as a result of both that win and the recalibration of Irish marks to British ones; while that seems a hefty enough elevation to overcome, the step back up to an extended three miles could be in his favour.
• Over fences, she’s one from three so far and she lacks obvious upside to my eye.
• He was just touched off in a muddling three horse race last time (heavy) with this tempo expected to be more his metier.
• If you’d had the proverbial crystal ball and been able to predict every front-runner at HQ since 2009, you’d have been on to a very good thing as you can see from the table below, taken from geegeez’ Query Tool.
• But the son of Vadamos came out on top that day, and has repeated the feat in one-mile contests on three of his six subsequent starts.
• We’ve another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks – Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle.

Asfoora joins Choisir (2003), Takeover Target (2006), Miss Andretti (2007), Scenic Blast (2009) and Nature Strip (2022) on the Australian roll of honour in what was formerly the King’s Stand Stakes. The five-year-old had made it to the track just twice since his fast-finishing fourth in the St James’s Palace Stakes two years ago, but he served notice there may still be a big prize on his horizon with a pleasing performance. “The Wolferton was the alternative but it’s on the round course and you need a lot more racing luck on there. As Docklands carries the colours of Australian-based owners OTI Racing, he is set for a trip to the southern hemisphere later in the year. “That was a really good run, it’s just a shame to miss out. He deserved it and we really thought he had a chance,” said Turner.

And, from a value perspective, especially if that horse is returning to optimal conditions today having recently run under less suitable criteria. A facilitator is merely something that greases the wheels, smooths the process, or saves time. In terms of horse racing betting, it’s usually either the aforementioned trusted human advisor or, for fans – like me – of the puzzle, it’s a website form resource like the one found elsewhere on these virtual pages. There’s plenty of content about how to use the geegeez toolkit elsewhere – try this link for a run down, so in this post I want to consider the other term, differentiators. It all started with a new superstar in the name of Bob Olinger, who absolutely bolted up in the Ballymore novices hurdle to become the first of the Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Winners. He was heavily supported in the market all morning, and my Ante Post Nap selection for the festival advised at 4/1 at the time of posting.

We’ll have contributions from our resident tipster as well as the chief sports writer, Paul Hayward, racing correspondent, Marcus Armytage and our Centaur correspondent, Alan Tyers. Stays further than 2m and loves heavy ground so has to be a serious player. Mullins-trained Douvan ‘drifting like a barge’ in the betting, according to Matt Chapman. Altior sees off Min to retain his unbeaten record over obstacles. Altior’s Champion Chase victory was his 13th win in his last 13 races – that’s also Nicky Henderson’s fifth victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Pre-race favourite Cause of Causes is right at the back of the field.

We now only have eight winners, from 291 runners, but an SP profit of 40 points. At BSP, for the reason highlighted above, it becomes a juicy 341 points. Those unaccessorized won 32 handicap chases from 786 runners (4.07%, the lowest in the sample).

More generously, it is the best opportunity to extend the winning sequence. In terms of potential rivals, Royale Pagaille has looked a mud machine this winter, but that one has numerous other possible engagements, principally the Gold Cup itself. Moreover, the two horses are in the same Ricci ownership and will surely attempt to divide and conquer. He has blitzed the best of the Irish this season, and he did the same to the best of the British and Irish here last season over hurdles. Lousy puns aside, he won his beginners’ chase in a canter before being merely pushed out to record a pair of Grade 1 successes in recognised trials, by three lengths and then eleven lengths from the talented Latest Exhibition. At an each way price, she is the final leg of this magnificently sneaky seven.

Paul Nicholls has a very good record in handicap hurdles, too, in contrast to his Grade 1 performance in recent seasons. But the likes of Evan Williams and Charlie Longsdon (0 from 31, 0 places, between them), Noel Meade and Dr Richard Newland (0 from 27, 3 places, collectively) are probably best passed up. Naturally, then, the other 50 winners came from horses priced at 16/1 or shorter, the 381 such runners losing just 31 points at SP, and breaking even at BSP.